G-Assist
Probably the biggest improvement to the game comes from the new G-Assist phase. One of the biggest issues with the game currently is that player missing their ride usually gets utterly overwhelmed and destroyed purely because of bad luck, something that ruins the fun for everyone. On average a deck has a 81-82% probability of smoothly riding every grade, so for over 1/6th of your games, riding will be an issue - factor in both players and that's roughly 30% of games affected by mis-riding.
G-Assist manages to help fix this issue by greatly improving a players chances of smoothly riding up to grade 3, albeit at the price of dropping down a card in hand and revealing your cards if you require its use. This is exciting purely because it lets players be a lot bolder with their deck grade ratios going forward.
Throughout all of the previous edition of Vanguard, decks have largely followed a ratio of 13-14 grade 1's, 11-12 grade 2's and 8-9 grade 3's with few exceptions. These ratios came about purely because they gave you the greatest chance of avoiding a mis-ride. With the addition of G-Assist though, the probability of hitting your rides is that much greater so we can now afford to get a little bit more creative in deck design.
Let's assume a worst-case scenario on finding your grade 3's, you start after mulligan without one in hand and you are going first. This leaves you with just four cards to reveal to find a grade 3, three start of turn draws and your grade two drive check. So what are the chances of finding what you need? Here we need to turn to the wonders of math and excel! (gotta love a spreadsheet)
Let's assume a worst-case scenario on finding your grade 3's, you start after mulligan without one in hand and you are going first. This leaves you with just four cards to reveal to find a grade 3, three start of turn draws and your grade two drive check. So what are the chances of finding what you need? Here we need to turn to the wonders of math and excel! (gotta love a spreadsheet)
| # G3's in Deck | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| 1 | 2.27% | 4.55% | 6.82% | 9.09% |
| 2 | 4.55% | 8.99% | 13.32% | 17.55% |
| 3 | 6.82% | 13.32% | 19.51% | 25.40% |
| 4 | 9.09% | 17.55% | 25.40% | 32.68% |
| 5 | 11.36% | 21.67% | 31.00% | 39.41% |
| 6 | 13.64% | 25.69% | 36.30% | 45.62% |
| 7 | 15.91% | 29.60% | 41.33% | 51.35% |
| 8 | 18.18% | 33.40% | 46.09% | 56.61% |
| 9 | 20.45% | 37.10% | 50.58% | 61.43% |
| 10 | 22.73% | 40.70% | 54.82% | 65.84% |
So as it stands, without G-Assist most decks have a 56% chance of finding their grade 3 if they are missing it in their starting hand; certainly not great odds. We can of course manipulate this with draw power to dig deeper, but most clans also have access to what is best termed a "grade 3 searcher" like this guy:
So what happens to our probabilities when we dig further?
So what happens to our probabilities when we dig further?
| # G3's in Deck | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
| 1 | 11.36% | 13.64% | 15.91% | 18.18% | 20.45% | 22.73% |
| 2 | 21.67% | 25.69% | 29.60% | 33.40% | 37.10% | 40.70% |
| 3 | 31.00% | 36.30% | 41.33% | 46.09% | 50.58% | 54.82% |
| 4 | 39.41% | 45.62% | 51.35% | 56.61% | 61.43% | 65.84% |
| 5 | 46.98% | 53.78% | 59.86% | 65.29% | 70.11% | 74.38% |
| 6 | 53.78% | 60.89% | 67.07% | 72.41% | 77.01% | 80.95% |
| 7 | 59.86% | 67.07% | 73.13% | 78.22% | 82.45% | 85.96% |
| 8 | 65.29% | 72.41% | 78.22% | 82.93% | 86.72% | 89.76% |
| 9 | 70.11% | 77.01% | 82.45% | 86.72% | 90.04% | 92.60% |
| 10 | 74.38% | 80.95% | 85.96% | 89.76% | 92.60% | 94.72% |
At 8 grade 3's with a searcher supporting us, we now have just under a one in six chance to miss our grade 3 ride if it's missing from our starting hand, and nearer to one in ten if we manage to get just a single draw off. G-Assist effectively gives everyone access to this reliability but at that cost of losing a card, while in return giving you the benefit of choosing whichever starting vanguard you desire instead of needing to use a searcher, and that for me is a pretty good trade if you have a good draw engine to compensate.
Interestingly with G-Assist you now also have a better probability of finding your grade 3 when only running 4 copies (61%) than you used to have with 8 (56%). So what happens when we combine both G-Assist with a grade 3 searcher? Essentially we need to repeat digs 5-9 again as the cards go back in the deck which ends up looking like this:
| # G3's in Deck | Searcher Dig (9 Deep) | G-Assist Dig |
| 1 | 20.45% | 30.40% |
| 2 | 37.10% | 52.02% |
| 3 | 50.58% | 67.26% |
| 4 | 61.43% | 77.90% |
| 5 | 70.11% | 85.25% |
| 6 | 77.01% | 90.28% |
| 7 | 82.45% | 93.67% |
| 8 | 86.72% | 95.94% |
| 9 | 90.04% | 97.43% |
| 10 | 92.60% | 98.40% |
Combined you will have the capability of digging a total of 14 cards deep to find your grade 3 ride, leaving you a minimal chance of missing your ride when not in your starting hand, especially if you have some draw ability or are going second - albeit at the cost of both a card AND your starter which is probably a bit too high. But what if the cost for such reliability wasn't so high?
Marios is able to dig just as deep as a grade 3 searcher, if not even deeper if going second as you get two chances to get his effect off - vitally it has no cost, only the condition of a third attack which if you are only running four grade 3's is very likely. Even if Marios' effect never goes off, you still have a better chance of reliably riding than the average 8 grade 3 deck ever had before if you accept the cost of dropping down a card and add enough draw power to your deck to compensate.
Put it all together and Vanguard G provides a massive reliability boost to abrasion decks, letting them run fewer grade 3's than ever for a more aggressive start. Even without going to such extremes as Marios, most decks will be able to drop the amount of grade 3's if it suits their plans.
Now for the golden spreadsheet - let's factor in the opening hand and mulligan:
Now for the golden spreadsheet - let's factor in the opening hand and mulligan:
| #G3's in Deck | Chance in 1st Hand | Chance after mull 3 | Chance after draw 4 | Chance after draw 5 | Draw 4 G-Assist | Draw 5 G-Assist | Marios G-Assist 4 |
| 1 | 10.20% | 15.94% | 23.58% | 25.49% | 33.13% | 35.04% | 41.49% |
| 2 | 19.56% | 29.60% | 41.96% | 44.86% | 55.72% | 58.25% | 66.22% |
| 3 | 28.12% | 41.29% | 56.20% | 59.48% | 70.98% | 73.47% | 80.78% |
| 4 | 35.93% | 51.24% | 67.17% | 70.45% | 81.19% | 83.34% | 89.22% |
| 5 | 43.05% | 59.68% | 75.57% | 78.62% | 87.95% | 89.67% | 94.05% |
| 6 | 49.52% | 66.81% | 81.95% | 84.66% | 92.37% | 93.68% | 96.77% |
| 7 | 55.39% | 72.82% | 86.78% | 89.09% | 95.23% | 96.18% | 98.28% |
| 8 | 60.70% | 77.85% | 90.39% | 92.31% | 97.06% | 97.73% | 99.10% |
| 9 | 65.49% | 82.05% | 93.08% | 94.63% | 98.21% | 98.67% | 99.54% |
| 10 | 69.81% | 85.53% | 95.06% | 96.29% | 98.93% | 99.24% | 99.77% |
Current grade 3 ride reliability sits between 5-6 grade three copies in the era of G-Assist. For me this lets decks shift down to a new sweet spot of just 6 grade 3's for a under 1/5 probability of needing to utilize G-Assist in the first place and around 1/12 chance of failing after it is used. When playing a best of 3 format that is acceptable to me, but if going into a best of 1 tournament it may be best to keep bulked up a little.
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